Dropout Rates Across Various School Levels in Lower Income Groups
India has made progress in reducing school dropout rates in recent years, yet a significant number of children still leave school before completing their education. According to the latest data from UDISE+ (Unified District Information System for Education Plus), the annual dropout rates stand at about 1.9% in primary school (Grades 1–5), 5.2% at the upper primary level (Grades 6–8), and around 14.1% at the secondary level (Grades 9–10): [1]. These figures reflect a steady improvement compared to earlier years; for instance, the secondary-level dropout rate declined from nearly 20% in 2016-17 to 12.6% by 2021-22: [2]. However, the jump in dropout rate between the upper primary and secondary stages is striking – far more students tend to discontinue after Grade 8, which suggests that the transition to secondary school is a critical weak point in India’s education system.
Dropout rates are not uniform across all segments of society. Children from lower income households and other disadvantaged groups are much more likely to drop out. Studies have shown that school attrition is highest among those from poor families, rural areas, lower castes, and certain minority communities: [3]. Economic hardship often forces children in low-income groups to quit schooling early – either to work and supplement family income or because families cannot afford continued schooling costs: [4]. In such communities, educational access and quality may also be poorer, creating a cycle where poverty and dropouts reinforce each other. Government data indicates that financial constraints and engagement of children in labor are leading reasons for dropouts, alongside a lack of interest in education – which itself can stem from the low quality of schooling available to underprivileged groups: [5]. This disparity means that dropout rates in India are especially acute for lower-income populations, undermining equity in education.
There are also significant state-level differences in dropout rates, often correlating with the state’s overall socio-economic development. Some of India’s poorer states report the highest dropout figures. For example, Bihar — which has a large population in lower income groups — has one of the worst dropout rates in the country. Recent cohort data show Bihar’s dropout rate reaching about 25.9% at the upper primary level and 25.6% at the secondary level, dramatically higher than the all-India averages. Similarly, Odisha has reported alarmingly high secondary school attrition; in 2021–22 its secondary-level dropout rate was around 27.3%, more than double the national average of 12.6% that year. Other states with high dropout rates include Assam (with ~25% at secondary level) and Rajasthan and Arunachal Pradesh which see elevated primary or upper-primary dropouts. These states tend to have large rural populations and higher poverty rates, illustrating how economic and regional disparities translate into educational inequities. It is also noteworthy that in many such states, girls from low-income rural families are the most likely to leave school early, due to factors like family responsibilities, early marriage, or safety concerns. Overall, while India’s average dropout rates are improving, children from lower income groups and certain states continue to be at a much higher risk of leaving school before completing even basic education.
Impact of Dropout Rates on Overall Literacy Levels in India
High dropout rates at early ages directly affect India’s overall literacy levels, especially in rural and low-income populations. When children drop out in primary or middle school, they often lose the opportunity to become fully literate and numerate. Many early dropouts remain only semi-literate, and as they grow into adults, they add to the population of illiterate or low-literacy adults. India’s adult literacy rate (for ages 15 and above) has improved over time but still has room to grow – recent estimates place it around 80–81% nationally: [6]. This means roughly one in five adults in India cannot read and write confidently. The problem is more pronounced in certain demographics: for instance, there is a stark rural-urban gap in literacy. In urban areas adult literacy is about 90%, while in rural areas it is around 77%: [7]. Such disparities are rooted in the fact that school dropout and educational access issues are more severe in rural regions. Children in rural villages (often from agrarian or low-income families) are more likely to quit school early – due to factors like needing to work on family farms, longer distances to school, or fewer schooling resources – and this translates into lower literacy in those communities over time.
Gender disparities in literacy are also closely tied to dropout patterns. Historically, girls in India have had higher dropout rates than boys, particularly at the secondary level, due to early marriage, household duties, and social norms that de-prioritize girls’ education in some communities. As a result, female literacy has lagged behind male literacy for decades. According to the National Statistical Office, the female literacy rate stands around 70–71%, compared to about 84–88% for males (estimates vary by survey): [8][9]. In the latest surveys, the gap is narrowing – one report found effective literacy rates of ~81% for women vs ~88% for men in 2023: [10] – but women still make up a disproportionate share of India’s non-literate population. This gender gap is largely a legacy of past dropouts: girls who left school early in the 1990s and 2000s are today’s adult women with low literacy. In many low-income rural areas, the literacy gender divide is even more acute, reflecting the higher dropout of girl children in those areas over the years.
The ripple effect of high dropout rates on literacy is also evident in youth and adult education statistics. Millions of India’s youths never complete schooling and therefore enter adulthood without strong reading or writing skills. A 2017-18 national survey estimated that over 32 million children aged 6–17 were out of school, predominantly from economically disadvantaged backgrounds: [11]. Such large numbers of out-of-school children eventually contribute to the adult illiteracy figures. Furthermore, dropping out before attaining functional literacy means that initial gains from early primary education can fade; without continual use, reading skills atrophy. This is why educationists stress the importance of keeping children in school at least through the elementary level – to solidify basic literacy and numeracy. High dropout rates undercut this goal and slow down improvements in the country’s literacy rate. They also exacerbate regional and social disparities: states or districts with more dropouts (often those with high poverty) tend to report lower literacy rates, creating clusters of low-literacy populations. For example, states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which have struggled with high dropout rates historically, have overall literacy rates below the national average and large gaps between male and female literacy: [12]. In summary, reducing dropouts is not just about educational attainment; it is crucial for achieving universal literacy. Every percentage point decrease in dropout rate means more children staying in school and becoming literate adults, which over time boosts the literacy rate of the entire population and helps narrow the gaps between urban and rural, rich and poor, men and women.
Impact of Dropouts on Technical Innovation and Evolution of Technology in India
Education is the backbone of a country’s innovation capacity and technological advancement. When large numbers of students drop out before completing secondary or higher secondary education, it shrinks the pipeline of future scientists, engineers, and skilled technologists. In India, the high dropout rate at the secondary level (around 14% nationally, and much higher in some areas) means that a significant cohort of young people never make it to Class 10 or 12. This limits their access to higher education and vocational training, which are prerequisites for careers in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) and other technical fields. As a result, the country potentially loses out on a huge pool of talent that could have contributed to research and innovation. A student who leaves school at age 14 or 15 is unlikely to enter the formal tech workforce a decade later. This dynamic has long-term implications: fewer graduates in engineering or science means fewer researchers, startups, and patents. Indeed, education experts note that student dropouts have “huge ramifications” for social and economic progress – affecting the labour market and economic performance of the country: [13]. In other words, today’s dropouts can translate into tomorrow’s shortage of skilled professionals.
One clear indicator of how dropouts constrain technological evolution is the educational attainment of India’s workforce. Although India is known for producing a large absolute number of STEM graduates, the proportion of the population reaching those advanced levels is relatively small given our demographic size. Government reports highlight that while primary education enrollment is near universal, the Gross Enrolment Ratio drops to only 77.4% at the secondary level and about 56.2% at higher secondary (Grades 11–12): [14]. This means almost half of the relevant age group is not even enrolled in upper secondary school, often due to earlier dropouts. Those missing students represent lost potential in fields like engineering, biotechnology, and information technology. Had they continued in school, some might have gone on to technical institutes or universities, joining India’s innovation economy. Instead, many end up in unskilled or informal work. The fallout is especially evident in rural and low-income areas, which produce a smaller share of India’s engineers and scientists; when children in these communities drop out, it perpetuates a cycle where certain sections of society remain underrepresented in high-tech fields.
Dropouts also affect the nation’s ability to leverage modern technologies and adapt to new innovations. A workforce with limited education can struggle with adopting advanced tools or participating in upskilling programs. The Government of India recognizes this link between education and innovation capacity. The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 explicitly aims for universal retention through secondary school (zero dropouts) and emphasizes vocational and technical education at the school level, precisely to build a foundation for innovation in the economy: [15]. By keeping more students in school and exposing them to science, mathematics, and technical skills, the NEP seeks to “foster innovation and upskilling to improve employability”: [16]. In addition, India’s Economic Survey 2024–25 noted that human capital development is a foundational pillar of development and highlighted investments in research and innovation ecosystems alongside education: [17][18]. This underscores an understanding that high dropout rates must be tackled to ensure a steady supply of educated individuals who can drive technological progress.
Projected Impact of Lowering Dropout by 5 Percentage Points
What would happen if India succeeded in reducing its school dropout rates by, say, 5 percentage points across the board? Such an improvement could have far-reaching effects on the country’s literacy, workforce quality, and even poverty levels. A 5% drop in the dropout rate means that a larger fraction of children stay in school through each educational stage. In concrete terms, at the secondary level for example, bringing the dropout rate down from ~14% to ~9% would mean that hundreds of thousands more students (if not millions, given India’s scale) would complete Grade 10 each year. These additional students would then be eligible to continue to higher secondary and possibly to college or vocational training. The immediate outcome would be a bump in youth literacy and educational attainment. More teenagers finishing secondary education translates to higher literacy and better foundational skills among young adults. Over time, as these cohorts age, the overall adult literacy rate would also rise. India could move significantly closer to universal literacy if dropout rates are curtailed. We have global evidence that links extended education with literacy gains: between 1990 and 2015, as schooling expanded worldwide, the global literacy rate among youth (ages 15–24) climbed from 83% to 91%: [19]. Similarly, in India, one can expect that ensuring children remain in school at least through basic levels will push the literacy rates upward, particularly in currently lagging rural areas and among women.
Lowering dropout rates by 5 points would also have a pronounced impact on poverty alleviation and economic outcomes. Education is often called the great equalizer – numerous studies and policy analyses have quantified its effect on earnings and poverty reduction. Each additional year of schooling is estimated to raise an individual’s earning by around 8–10% on average: [20]. Therefore, if more children stay in school for additional years, their future incomes are likely to be higher. At a macro level, more educated workers enhance the country’s productivity and GDP growth; research indicates that an extra year of average schooling can increase a nation’s GDP growth rate by about 0.3–0.4 percentage points: [21]. By extrapolation, a substantial cut in dropouts (which effectively means an increase in average educational attainment) could boost India’s economic growth over the long term. Crucially, education has a well-documented effect on reducing poverty. A UNESCO policy paper projected that if all adults worldwide completed secondary education, global poverty could be cut by more than half: [22]. In South Asia specifically – which includes India – the number of people in poverty could drop by almost two-thirds under that scenario: [23]. While a 5% reduction in dropout rates is a smaller step, it moves society in that direction. Even incremental improvements matter: according to the same analysis, just giving everyone two additional years of schooling (less than secondary completion) could lift about 60 million people out of poverty globally: [24]. This highlights how powerful education is as a tool against poverty.
For India, lowering dropout rates means more students, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, would gain the qualifications to secure better-paying jobs. They would be less likely to be trapped in the cycle of severe poverty that often afflicts uneducated workers. Empirical observations in India show that school dropout is associated with higher chances of poverty and even issues like child marriage and poor health outcomes: [25]. Therefore, reducing dropout not only improves individual earning capacity but also has social benefits such as delayed marriage and reduced vulnerability for young girls, improved health awareness, and greater empowerment in communities. On a community level, if dropout rates in a low-income rural district drop by 5 points, that community might see higher literacy, which in turn can lead to better access to information, more effective use of government welfare schemes, and generally greater economic dynamism. In essence, education multiplies opportunities: a more educated populace is better equipped to innovate, start businesses, or gain formal employment, all of which contribute to poverty reduction. In fact, one World Bank estimate suggests that universal secondary education in India could virtually eliminate extreme poverty in the long run: [26].
Sources
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https://www.education.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/files/statistics-new/udise_report_existing_23_24.pdf
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